Tomorrow Ain't as Bad as It Seems

Hello, everybody, this is our SoCal First-Time Buyer Market Update. So today we're gonna talk about three reasons tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems. And unfortunately, one reason that it is actually worse, let's get started. I'm Steven Meade with domicile real estate. And once again, this is our SoCal first time buyer market update. This is a market update, where we focus on the entry level and the market. I think we're one of the only people that actually do this kind of providing stats and information just for this group of people. We are going to do things a little bit backwards, I'm going to give you our three reasons why things are not as bad as they might seem.

Let's go ahead and take a look at those steps. So here is the first reason why things are not as bad as they seem. And this is our week's supply of home. So this is where we talk about the relative inventory. What is relative inventory? Well, easy relative inventory is saying, How many weeks of inventory Do you have? If nothing new came on the market?

How long would you have before you ran out? And right now for entry level single family homes, we are at just over five weeks. And for our entry level condos, we are at seven and a half weeks. Why is that important? Well, for our condos, it's actually better than we were at at this point last year, and it is trending upward. And for our entry level single family homes, we are at five and a third weeks and we are flat, I think there is a chance that this year will maybe if it's not better than last year, it might actually be about the same, this would be a good thing. Moving on, we've got our still active percentage.

So this is a measure of market competitiveness. Higher is a less competitive market. Lower is a more competitive market. And guess what we already numbers that are a little bit higher for the most part than last year. If you'll notice last year, when we were looking at this chart, things were getting more competitive going into the spring. Right now things are kind of leveling off in this range. This is good news for first time homebuyers. It is not as bad as we thought. Now we've got our 14 Day absorption rate. Right let's take a look at this. Again, these numbers are better than they were last year. Of course, things are still moving upward. You'll see we're at 83% for our actual single family home. And we are at 71% for entry level condo that is versus 101% and 89% respectively.

Last year. Now these numbers are going up a little bit but starting from such a lower point is encouraging. Remember, this is that rate at which homes are going off the market versus home's coming onto the market. So this is very important if you are a buyer. So that is the three ways that things are not as bad as they might seem. Hope you're a Billy Joel fan, I am keeping the faith, one of my favorite Billy Joel songs there. Now there is one reason and one area why things are actually a little bit worse than we would hope and we're going to talk about that right now. And you can see here it is our closed prices. So again, this is at the entry level end of the market. In the case of an entry level single family home.

That is a three bedroom, two bath home and it is the first quartile so it is halfway between the bottom and the median. So it's kind of that first first quarter of the market. Right and look at what has happened. Now remember, this is this data is four to six weeks old. So this is looking back to the beginning of January. And look at the hockey stick effect we are seeing on prices. In fact, we are reaching a new high point in price basically hitting right about $800,000. Of course we've been predicting and talking about that and by the way, everyone, guess what? Its Southern California houses are expensive and in other news water is wet, we see a similar albeit more subdued. would affect down here when we were talking about our condos. What does this mean factoring in interest rates in the real world? Well, the great news is it means we have not matched our peak payment.

So the peak payment assuming 5%, down mortgage insurance, taxes, all of that good stuff. We're at 6300 on our entry level, single Pam numbers of the peak of over 6700. So some some good news there, right. And also taking a look here, we're at $4,700 on our condo that is again, also down from our peak of 50 to 32. So really, not all bad news. Now we're going to take a look at our inventory here. And this is actually we're gonna call this medium news right? On one hand inventory levels in absolute terms are low.

The good news is they are flat whereas at this point last year, inventory was dropping rapidly. What does this mean? It gives me some hope that we may actually have a better spring and summer for total inventory levels than we have had in the past. Well, everybody that's pretty much it for us. Thank you so much for watching, do not forget to like subscribe and hit that notification bell. Also, we are doing a another webinar coming up here on the 19th of February and this one is affording an architectural home on an entry level budget.

So if you are both an entry level buyer, meaning you are hoping to own a home, but you also want something with style, we have a short 30 minute webinar, the link to sign up this is free is down below in the description. And of course, if you're not interested in architectural but still interested in becoming a homeowner, we would absolutely love to work with you or if you are in the Southern California area. Don't hesitate to reach out to us questions, comments. We love all of it. Definitely put those down below and those likes, so keep them coming. Thanks so much, everybody. We'll see you again real soon.

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